MODELING AND ASSESSING THE RISK OF ACHIEVING THE PLANNED AVERAGE DISTANCE OF CARGO TRANSPORTATION BY ROAD TRANSPORT IN RUSSIA
Rubrics: ARTICLES
Authors:
1.
Emperor Alexander I St. Petersburg State Transport University
2.
Emperor Alexander I St. Petersburg State Transport University
Type:
Article
Pages:
from 22
to 27
Status:
Published
Received:
11.01.2025
Accepted:
11.01.2025
Published:
11.01.2025
Subject area:
UDK УДК
Language:
Russian
Keywords:
modeling, forecasting, estimation, regression, coefficient of determination, point estimation, interval estimation, risk
Abstract (English):
Modeling and forecasting of a key economic indicator that determines the cost of cargo delivery by road has been carried out. The mathematical apparatus used for the study made it possible to build a model of the average delivery distance of one ton of cargo and its verification, to perform model point and interval forecasting and assessed the risk of untimely delivery of cargo. The mathematical model and forecast were made on a sample of statistical data from 2004 to 2021, the years of cargo transportation by road in the Russian Federation. Verification was carried out based on the results of cargo transportation in 2022. The model is based on regression analysis and the least squares method. The calculation apparatus is implemented using the Excel.
Modeling and forecasting of a key economic indicator that determines the cost of cargo delivery by road has been carried out. The mathematical apparatus used for the study made it possible to build a model of the average delivery distance of one ton of cargo and its verification, to perform model point and interval forecasting and assessed the risk of untimely delivery of cargo. The mathematical model and forecast were made on a sample of statistical data from 2004 to 2021, the years of cargo transportation by road in the Russian Federation. Verification was carried out based on the results of cargo transportation in 2022. The model is based on regression analysis and the least squares method. The calculation apparatus is implemented using the Excel.
Keywords:
modeling, forecasting, estimation, regression, coefficient of determination, point estimation, interval estimation, risk
modeling, forecasting, estimation, regression, coefficient of determination, point estimation, interval estimation, risk
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