Russian Federation
Purpose: to develop a methodology for estimating the total losses of the local speed of freight trains, which, unlike existing methods based on calculating losses caused by the influence of individual operational factors, will be based on the use of statistical data, and take into account the entire range of operational factors that influence the implementation of the indicator under consideration. Methods: formation of a statistical database of railway operational parameters and conducting research on its basis using the tools of probability theory and mathematical statistics: assessing the distribution of the quantities under consideration, correlation and regression analysis. Results: it was established that 75 % of the variability in the local speed of freight trains is explained by changes in the size of the operating fleet of freight cars. Based on this, a methodology has been developed for estimating losses in the local speed of freight trains through the size of the working fleet of freight cars on the railway. A graphical and analytical method for determining these losses is proposed. Practical significance: it is shown that the developed methodology, in contrast to existing ones, makes it possible to more accurately estimate the loss of local speed of freight trains. Its use makes it possible to plan and analyze the implementation of the local speed of freight trains, taking into account the evolving operational work on the railway.
operational work, local speed, forecasting indicators, determining losses, correlation analysis, regression equation
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