Russian Federation
Objective: The risk assessment of fulfillment of planned cargo turnover indicators was carried out, the implementation of which required the following main stages of the study: modeling and verification of the model, model point and interval forecasting, forecast analysis and risk assessment. A mathematical model of the dependence of the turnover from year transportation of goods by rail is constructed for the sample statistics from Rosstat from 2009 to 2019. Verification was performed based on the results of cargo turnover in 2020. The construction of the model, verification and prediction were carried out using the Excel. Methods: The model is based on regression analysis and the method of least squares. Results: Comparison of forecast and planned values of cargo turnover showed that the plans for 2021–2023 are within the confidence interval and are feasible with varying degrees of risk, but have almost its maximum level, that is, they are achievable with a low level of probability. Practical importance: Plans for 2022 and 2023 need to be finalized taking into account the development of a pandemic in the country, and, therefore, require a possible reduction in their magnitude. It is advisable to regularly update forecast estimates according to the proposed methodology, taking into account the actual implementation of plans in 2021, taking into account the impact of measures taken in the country to combat the coronavirus pandemic on them.
modeling, forecasting, estimation, regression, coefficient of determination, point and interval assessment, risk
1. Teoriya i praktika upravleniya riskami [Theory and practice of risk management]. St. Petersburg: POLITEKH-PRESS Publ., 2020. 236 p.
2. Gerasimenko P.V. Teoriya ocenivaniya riska [Theory of risk assessment]. St. Petersburg: Emperor Alexander I Petersburg State Transport University Publ., 2015. 51 p.
3. Dolgosrochnaya programma razvitiya otkrytogo akcionernogo obshchestva «Rossijskie zheleznye dorogi» do 2025 goda [Long-term development program of the Open Joint Stock Company "Russian Railways" until 2025]. Sobranie zakonodatel'stva Rossijskoj Federacii [Collection of legislation of the Russian Federation]. I. 12, 2019.
4. Gajdarzhi G.H. Matematicheskomu obrazovaniyu - razvivayushchuyu napravlennost' [Mathematical education - developing orientation]. Problemy matematicheskoj i estestvenno-nauchnoj podgotovki v inzhenernom obrazovanii. Sbornik trudov IV Mezhdunarodnoj nauchno-metodicheskoj konferencii, Sankt-Peterburg, 03 noyabrya 2016 goda [Problems of mathematical and natural science training in engineering education : Proceedings of the IV International Scientific and Methodological Conference]. St. Petersburg: Emperor Alexander I Petersburg State Transport University Publ., 2017, pp. 37-40.
5. Gerasimenko P.V. Vvedenie v ekonometriku [Introduction to Econometrics]. St. Petersburg: Emperor Alexander I Petersburg State Transport University Publ., 2005. 57 p.
