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 <front>
  <journal-meta>
   <journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">Transport automation research</journal-id>
   <journal-title-group>
    <journal-title xml:lang="en">Transport automation research</journal-title>
    <trans-title-group xml:lang="ru">
     <trans-title>Автоматика на транспорте</trans-title>
    </trans-title-group>
   </journal-title-group>
   <issn publication-format="print">2412-9186</issn>
  </journal-meta>
  <article-meta>
   <article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">69989</article-id>
   <article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.20295/2412-9186-2023-9-03-239-246</article-id>
   <article-categories>
    <subj-group subj-group-type="toc-heading" xml:lang="ru">
     <subject>ИНТЕЛЛЕКТУАЛЬНЫЕ СИСТЕМЫ УПРАВЛЕНИЯ</subject>
    </subj-group>
    <subj-group subj-group-type="toc-heading" xml:lang="en">
     <subject>INTELLIGENT CONTROL SYSTEMS</subject>
    </subj-group>
    <subj-group>
     <subject>ИНТЕЛЛЕКТУАЛЬНЫЕ СИСТЕМЫ УПРАВЛЕНИЯ</subject>
    </subj-group>
   </article-categories>
   <title-group>
    <article-title xml:lang="en">Forecasting Random Processes in Intelligent Transport Systems with Singular Perturbations</article-title>
    <trans-title-group xml:lang="ru">
     <trans-title>Прогноз случайных процессов, при наличии единичных возмущений в интеллектуальных транспортных системах</trans-title>
    </trans-title-group>
   </title-group>
   <contrib-group content-type="authors">
    <contrib contrib-type="author">
     <name-alternatives>
      <name xml:lang="ru">
       <surname>Баранов</surname>
       <given-names>Леонид Аврамович</given-names>
      </name>
      <name xml:lang="en">
       <surname>Baranov</surname>
       <given-names>Leonid Avramovich</given-names>
      </name>
     </name-alternatives>
     <email>baranov.miit@gmail.com</email>
     <bio xml:lang="ru">
      <p>доктор технических наук;</p>
     </bio>
     <bio xml:lang="en">
      <p>doctor of technical sciences;</p>
     </bio>
     <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/>
    </contrib>
    <contrib contrib-type="author">
     <name-alternatives>
      <name xml:lang="ru">
       <surname>Анохин</surname>
       <given-names>Антон Сергеевич</given-names>
      </name>
      <name xml:lang="en">
       <surname>Anohin</surname>
       <given-names>Anton Sergeevich</given-names>
      </name>
     </name-alternatives>
     <email>antonanohin26@gmail.com</email>
     <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/>
    </contrib>
    <contrib contrib-type="author">
     <name-alternatives>
      <name xml:lang="ru">
       <surname>Жеребятин</surname>
       <given-names>Илья Андреевич</given-names>
      </name>
      <name xml:lang="en">
       <surname>Zherebyatin</surname>
       <given-names>Il'ya Andreevich</given-names>
      </name>
     </name-alternatives>
     <email>opoxil@mail.ru</email>
     <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-3"/>
    </contrib>
    <contrib contrib-type="author">
     <name-alternatives>
      <name xml:lang="ru">
       <surname>Чжан</surname>
       <given-names>Юнцян </given-names>
      </name>
      <name xml:lang="en">
       <surname>Chzhan</surname>
       <given-names>Yuncyan </given-names>
      </name>
     </name-alternatives>
     <email>zyq0526@yandex.ru</email>
     <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-4"/>
    </contrib>
   </contrib-group>
   <aff-alternatives id="aff-1">
    <aff>
     <institution xml:lang="ru">Российский университет транспорта (МИИТ)</institution>
     <city>Москва</city>
     <country>Россия</country>
    </aff>
    <aff>
     <institution xml:lang="en">Russian University of Transport (MIIT)</institution>
     <city>Moscow</city>
     <country>Russian Federation</country>
    </aff>
   </aff-alternatives>
   <aff-alternatives id="aff-2">
    <aff>
     <institution xml:lang="ru">Российский университет транспорта (МИИТ)</institution>
     <city>Москва</city>
     <country>Россия</country>
    </aff>
    <aff>
     <institution xml:lang="en">Russian University of Transport (MIIT)</institution>
     <city>Moscow</city>
     <country>Russian Federation</country>
    </aff>
   </aff-alternatives>
   <aff-alternatives id="aff-3">
    <aff>
     <institution xml:lang="ru">Российский университет транспорта (МИИТ)</institution>
     <city>Москва</city>
     <country>Россия</country>
    </aff>
    <aff>
     <institution xml:lang="en">Russian University of Transport (MIIT)</institution>
     <city>Moscow</city>
     <country>Russian Federation</country>
    </aff>
   </aff-alternatives>
   <aff-alternatives id="aff-4">
    <aff>
     <institution xml:lang="ru">Российский университет транспорта (МИИТ)</institution>
     <city>Москва</city>
     <country>Россия</country>
    </aff>
    <aff>
     <institution xml:lang="en">Russian University of Transport (MIIT)</institution>
     <city>Moscow</city>
     <country>Russian Federation</country>
    </aff>
   </aff-alternatives>
   <pub-date publication-format="print" date-type="pub" iso-8601-date="2023-09-09T17:00:12+03:00">
    <day>09</day>
    <month>09</month>
    <year>2023</year>
   </pub-date>
   <pub-date publication-format="electronic" date-type="pub" iso-8601-date="2023-09-09T17:00:12+03:00">
    <day>09</day>
    <month>09</month>
    <year>2023</year>
   </pub-date>
   <volume>9</volume>
   <issue>3</issue>
   <fpage>239</fpage>
   <lpage>246</lpage>
   <history>
    <date date-type="received" iso-8601-date="2023-09-08T00:00:00+03:00">
     <day>08</day>
     <month>09</month>
     <year>2023</year>
    </date>
   </history>
   <self-uri xlink:href="https://atjournal.ru/en/nauka/article/69989/view">https://atjournal.ru/en/nauka/article/69989/view</self-uri>
   <abstract xml:lang="ru">
    <p>Прогнозирование случайных возмущений позволяет улучшить качество управления в интеллектуальных транспортных системах, а также обеспечить эффективную работу диагностических систем. Известен ряд работ, в которых приведены модели экстраполяторов на базе многочленов Чебышева, ортогональных на множестве равноотстоящих точек с прогнозирующим многочленом, коэффициенты которого вычисляются по критерию наименьших квадратов, а также проведен анализ погрешностей прогноза случайных стационарных входных сигналов. Вместе с тем в случае нестационарных входных сигналов возможны единичные возмущения, воздействие которых на экстраполятор приводит к значительным погрешностям прогноза. &#13;
В данной статье приведен пример возникновения аддитивных возмущений, появляющихся в системах автоматического управления движения поездов; получено аналитическое выражение и проведен расчет величин погрешностей прогноза при единичных возмущениях. Анализ результатов расчета позволяет определить влияние параметров экстраполятора на величину погрешности прогноза, показать необходимость детектирования единичных возмущений и исключить их влияние на величину погрешностей прогноза.&#13;
В статье рассмотрен алгоритм детектирования единичных возмущений и их исключения в процессе прогноза; сделан вывод об эффективности использования экстраполяторов случайных возмущений с исключением влияния единичных возмущений в интеллектуальных системах автоматического управления движением поездов метрополитена.</p>
   </abstract>
   <trans-abstract xml:lang="en">
    <p>Forecasting random perturbations allows improving the control quality in intelligent transport systems and ensuring the efficient operation of diagnostic systems. Several works are known where extrapolator models based on Chebyshev polynomials orthogonal on equidistant points are presented. These models use a predictive polynomial whose coefficients are computed using the least squares criterion. Additionally, an analysis of forecast errors for random stationary input signals has been conducted. At the same time, in the case of non-stationary input signals, singular perturbations may occur, the influence of which on the extrapolator leads to significant forecast errors.&#13;
This article presents an example of the occurrence of additive perturbations that arise in automatic train control systems. An analytical expression has been derived, and calculations of forecast error magnitudes in the presence of singular perturbations have been conducted. The analysis of the calculation results allows determining the influence of extrapolator parameters on the forecast error magnitude, highlighting the necessity of detecting singular perturbations, and excluding their influence on the forecast error magnitude.&#13;
The article discusses an algorithm for detecting singular perturbations and their exclusion during the forecasting process. The conclusion is drawn about the effectiveness of using extrapolators for random perturbations with the exclusion of singular perturbations in intelligent systems for automatic train control in subway transportation.</p>
   </trans-abstract>
   <kwd-group xml:lang="ru">
    <kwd>прогнозирование</kwd>
    <kwd>экстраполяторы</kwd>
    <kwd>погрешности прогноза</kwd>
    <kwd>случайные возмущения</kwd>
    <kwd>единичные возмущения</kwd>
    <kwd>детектирование единичных возмущений</kwd>
    <kwd>алгоритм</kwd>
    <kwd>интеллектуальная система</kwd>
    <kwd>автоматическое управление</kwd>
    <kwd>поезда метрополитена</kwd>
   </kwd-group>
   <kwd-group xml:lang="en">
    <kwd>forecasting</kwd>
    <kwd>extrapolators</kwd>
    <kwd>forecast errors</kwd>
    <kwd>random perturbations</kwd>
    <kwd>singular perturbations</kwd>
    <kwd>detection of singular perturbations</kwd>
    <kwd>algorithm</kwd>
    <kwd>intelligent system</kwd>
    <kwd>automatic control</kwd>
    <kwd>subway trains</kwd>
   </kwd-group>
  </article-meta>
 </front>
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